📈 Aartha Weekly Market Newsletter - Dec 1st, 2025

Date: Week of Dec 1–Dec 5, 2025

Welcome to your Aartha Weekly Market Update — a fast, insightful briefing designed to help you understand the markets with clarity and confidence. Let’s dive in.

🌐 U.S. Markets Overview

Markets staged a powerful rebound this week, shaking off November’s gloom. The catalyst? A mix of renewed AI optimism and a paradoxically bullish reaction to weak economic data. With the ADP jobs report showing an unexpected contraction, investors are now betting heavily that the Federal Reserve will be forced to cut rates at next week's meeting.

📊 NASDAQ: roaring Back (+4.91%)

The tech-heavy index enjoyed its best week in months, erasing much of the previous weeks' losses. The narrative shifted back to "Growth" as bond yields dipped on soft labor data.(FNGU ~13% & TQQQ ~16% profits since Aarth’s buy signal 11/24)

• Semiconductors & AI hardware - The sector reignited, led by a massive relief rally in Nvidia (NVDA) and Broadcom (AVGO). Investors treated the recent pullback as a buying opportunity, brushing off valuation concerns.

Key Aartha’s Daily signal picks: SOXL (~30% profits since Aartha's buy Signal on 11/26)

Watchlist: SanDisk Corp(SNDK), Micron Technology Inc (MU) -

• Tech giants & FANG names - Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) led the charge, benefiting from the broader "risk-on" rotation. Meta (META) is recovering it's recent losses.

Key Aartha’s Daily signal picks: Meta(~5.84% profits since Aartha's buy Signal on 11/25 )

Watchlist: Alphabet(GOOGL) FNGU 

• Quantum Computing (High-Beta) - After a brutal November, the Quantum sector saw a sharp "dead cat bounce" or relief rally, riding the coattails of the broader AI surge. While fundamentals remain shaky, the risk appetite returned for these speculative names. This moves looks technical rather than fundamental. Proceed with caution.

Key Aartha’s Daily signal picks: IONQ(~15.9% profit since Aarth's buy signal on 11/28)

Watchlist: QBTS RGTI QUBT (dependent on the FOMC outcome)

Overall trend: Bullish engulfing candle. The trend has flipped back to positive, but volatility remains high heading into the Fed meeting.

🏛️ NYSE & Broader U.S. Market

The rally wasn't just tech. The S&P 500 (+3.73%) and Dow Jones (+3.18%) also surged, fueled by hopes of easier monetary policy. (SPXL 11.59% profits since Aartha's buys signal on 11/24)

• Macro Driver: The ADP Employment Report shocked the market on Wednesday, showing a loss of 32,000 private sector jobs (vs. expectations of gains). This weakness fueled bets on a dovish Fed.
• The "Missing" Data: The official BLS Non-Farm Payrolls report, originally due Friday, has been delayed to Dec 16 due to the recent government shutdown aftermath. This leaves the Fed flying partially blind into next week's meetings.

Overall Trend: The market is pricing in a rate cut. If the Fed disappoints next week, this rally could retrace quickly.

🇨🇳 China & Global Markets

Global markets joined the party, though with less ferocity than the U.S.

• Europe: Indices rose, supported by the risk-on mood in the U.S. and hopes that the ECB will mirror any dovish moves by the Fed.
• China: Tech stocks in Hong Kong stabilized, but the mainland remains weighed down by sluggish domestic consumption data. 

Overall Trend: Cautiously optimistic, but all eyes are on the U.S. Federal Reserve.

💰 Gold

Gold continues to shine — having posted a robust rally over the past year. As of late November, gold is up substantially year-to-date. 

• Drivers: The unexpected contraction in jobs (-32k) signals potential recession risk, keeping safe-haven demand alive even as stocks rally.
• Price Action: Gold is consolidating near $4,080/oz, flirting with new all-time highs.

Key ETFs with Aartha’s Daily signal: GDXU (+44% profits since Aartha's buy signal on 11/24) 

Overall Trend: The "Bad Economy" data supports Gold just as much as it supports Tech (via rate cuts).

🪙 Crypto Market

Bitcoin and alts caught a bid this week, correlated with the NASDAQ's surge.

• Bitcoin (BTC): Rebounded from the $90k lows to test $94,000, driven by the return of liquidity expectations.
• The Catalyst: The weak ADP jobs number suggests "money printer" risks (rate cuts/QE) might return, which historically benefits crypto.
• Aartha Warning: Unlike the NASDAQ, crypto volumes remain thin. This bounce lacks the conviction seen in equities.

Overall Trend: Neutral-to-Bullish (Short Term). We need to see BTC reclaim $98k to confirm the correction is over.

📅 The Week Ahead: High Stakes (Dec 8–12)

Next week determines if this rally is real or a bull trap. We face a "Binary Event" week with the Federal Reserve decision and critical earnings from tech and retail giants.

🏛️ Federal Reserve Meeting (FOMC)

• Date: Tuesday, Dec 9 – Wednesday, Dec 10
• Announcement: Wednesday, 2:00 PM ET (Press Conference at 2:30 PM ET)

🚨 Key Earnings Watchlist

• Thursday (Dec 11):
  • Broadcom (AVGO) — The second most important AI-hardware stock after Nvidia. 

🔍 What This Means for Aartha Traders

• WATCHLIST: 
  • Ride the Momentum (With Stops): The trend has flipped up. Long positions in Semis and Software are working again. Raise stops to protect profits.
  • Watch the Fed (Dec 9-10): The market has effectively "priced in" a cut based on the bad jobs data. If the Fed is hawkish next week, the market is vulnerable.
  • Quantum is a Trade, Not an Investment: The bounce in Quantum stocks is likely a high-beta reaction to the Nasdaq. Take quick profits; do not marry these positions yet.
  • Gold is the Hedge: Keep your Gold allocation. If the "Bad News" (job losses) turns into "Recession Fear" rather than "Rate Cut Hope," stocks will fall, but Gold will fly.
  • Highest Probability Setup: Long Tech into the Fed meeting (buying the rumor), but be ready to Sell the News if Powell isn't dovish enough.

📥 Final Word

The market is celebrating "bad news" because it promises cheaper money. This is a powerful but dangerous dynamic. We are flying into a Fed meeting without the official Jobs Report—a recipe for surprise volatility. Enjoy the rally, but keep your finger near the sell button.

Stay sharp. Next week (Fed Week) will determine the trend for the rest of 2025.